The Death of the “Keyword” & The Rise of the Shopper Persona: Why Your 2025 Amazon PPC Strategy Won’t Survive 2026

TL;DR

Why are my “Exact Match” keyword campaigns suddenly performing worse?

Amazon has shifted from a “Keyword” engine to an AI-driven “Answer Engine” (Rufus). The algorithm now prioritizes “Persona Signals”—such as visual context, review sentiment, and return rates—over simple text matching. You must optimize for who the buyer is, not just what they type.

Why is my daily ad budget vanishing by 10:00 AM?

The new “Predictive Pacing” algorithm now spends aggressively during predicted high-conversion hours (usually mornings). To fix this, do not just raise your budget; instead, use “Intraday Budget Rules” to artificially cap morning spend or boost bids specifically for the evening rush (6 PM – 10 PM).

What is the single biggest opportunity to lower ad costs in 2026?

Switch from keyword-only targeting to “Persona Portfolios” using the Amazon Marketing Cloud (AMC). By targeting behavioral signals—like “Competitor Cart Abandoners” or “Window Shoppers”—you can reach buyers before they search, often achieving higher ROAS than expensive keyword battles.

My click-through rates are dropping. What should I change?

My click-through rates are dropping. What should I change?

If you are reading this, you likely just survived the most volatile Q4 in Amazon’s history. For many sellers, Q4 2025 was the first time Amazon PPC felt unpredictable, even with strong listings and proven keyword structures in place. 

We all saw it coming, but few were truly prepared for the sheer scale of the shift. In November 2025, during the “unBoxed” conference in Nashville, Amazon didn’t just announce new features, they effectively deprecated the strategy that has powered our businesses for a decade. The era of “Keyword Dominance” is officially over. The era of “Signal-Based Marketing”—or as the seller community has started calling it, Persona Targeting—has begun. 

This shift caught many experienced advertisers off guard because it changed how Amazon decides who sees ads, not just which ads appear. 

I’ve spent the last eight weeks inside the war rooms of 7-figure and 8-figure brands. I’ve watched daily budgets vanish by 10:00 AM EST due to the new “Predictive Pacing” algorithms. I’ve seen Cost-Per-Clicks (CPCs) on “exact match” terms skyrocket while conversion rates flatlined. But I’ve also seen a new breed of seller emerge: one who abandoned the old “text-match” religion and embraced the “Video-First” and “Persona-First” reality. 

This isn’t just another “tactic” update. This is a fundamental rewriting of the Amazon A9 algorithm (now effectively the “Rufus” algorithm). If you are still structuring your campaigns primarily around what people type rather than who they are, you are fighting a war with weapons from 2024. 

This guide is your manifesto for 2026. We are going to break down exactly what changed, why your “Exact Match” campaigns are bleeding money, and how to build the new “Persona Portfolios” that will define the winners of Q1. 

The “Rufus” Effect: Why Keywords Are Dying

To understand why your ads are failing, you have to understand how the Search Engine Results Page (SERP) changed in late 2025. 

For twenty years, Amazon was a “Retrieval Engine.” A user typed “running shoes,” and Amazon retrieved a list of products containing the text string “running shoes.” Simple. 

With the full integration of Rufus (Amazon’s generative AI assistant) into the mobile app and desktop experience, Amazon has become an “Answer Engine.” 

According to data released in Amazon’s Q3 2025 report, over 250 million customers have now engaged with Rufus. More importantly, shoppers who use Rufus are 60% more likely to convert. Why does this matter to you? 

Because Rufus doesn’t care about your keyword density. 

When a shopper asks Rufus, “What is the best trail running shoe for someone with flat feet?”, the AI does not simply look for the keyword “flat feet” in your title. It analyzes: 

1. Visual Context: It “reads” your images and video content to see if the sole support looks substantial. 

2. Review Sentiment: It aggregates thousands of reviews to find semantic matches for “arch support.” 

3. Return Rate Signals: It checks if users with similar profiles returned your product. 

Rufus evaluates shopper behavior, content signals, and engagement patterns before it considers keyword relevance. Exact match keywords still matter, but they no longer control reach on their own. 

If you are bidding $5.00 on the keyword “trail running shoe” but your backend signals don’t align with the “flat feet persona,” Rufus will simply ignore you. Your ad impression won’t serve, or worse, it will serve in a low-visibility placement at the bottom of the page while the “Rufus Recommended” carousel steals the top slot. 

The “Zero-Click” Search Threat 

We are seeing a massive rise in “Zero-Click Searches”—instances where a customer gets their answer from the AI summary and never clicks a product listing. In these cases, visibility now depends on whether your product helps Amazon answer the shopper’s question, not whether you outbid competitors. The only way to penetrate this shield is to be the source of the answer. 

In 2026, Context is King. You can no longer brute-force your way to the top with high bids. You must optimize your “Taxonomy” (how Amazon understands your product) to match the “Persona” of the buyer. 

The New “Persona Portfolios” Strategy

This is the most critical shift for your 2026 strategy. 

In the past, we structured campaigns by Match Type: Auto, Broad, Phrase, Exact. Now, the top sellers are structuring campaigns by Persona: “The Browser,” “The Competitor Shopper,” “The Brand Loyalist,” and “The Cart Abandoner.” This change forces advertisers to rethink campaign structure from a buyer-centric view instead of a keyword list. 

This was made possible by the massive update to the Amazon Marketing Cloud (AMC) in November 2025. Previously, AMC was a tool for enterprise brands with data science teams. But with the release of the “No-Code Audience Builder” and “Ads Data Manager,” every seller can now access “Signal-Based Marketing.” These tools reduce the technical barrier that once limited advanced audience targeting to large brands. 

What is a “Persona Portfolio”? 

A Persona Portfolio is a collection of ad campaigns (SP, SB, and SD) that target a specific behavioral signal rather than a keyword. 

Here are the three “Personas” you need to build immediately: 

1. The “Cross-Category” Persona (The Signal-Based Conquest) 

• The Old Way: You sell a yoga mat. You bid on the keyword “yoga blocks” because they are related. 

• The 2026 Way: You use AMC to build an audience of “High-Intent Health & Wellness Shoppers.” 

• The Signal: Users who have browsed “Protein Powder” or “Dumbbells” in the last 7 days but have not purchased a yoga mat. 

• The Execution: You serve them a Sponsored Display video ad on their Kindle Fire or while they are watching Prime Video (using the new “Prime Video Insights” beta). 

• Why it wins: You are reaching the shopper before they even type “yoga mat” into the search bar. You are capturing the demand upstream. This approach works because it reaches shoppers earlier in the decision process, before search intent becomes competitive. 

2. The “Window Shopper” Persona (Visual Engagement) 

• The Old Way: Retargeting everyone who viewed your product but didn’t buy. 

• The 2026 Way: Targeting “High-Engagement Non-Purchasers.” 

• The Signal: Using the new AMC query logic, we can isolate users who viewed your Main Image for more than 4 seconds or watched 50% of your video but did not Add to Cart. 

• The Execution: This is a specific “Hesitation” signal. You retarget this group with a specific creative that handles objections (e.g., “Free Returns” or “Lifetime Warranty”). This makes creative relevance more important than bid size. 

• The Result: We are seeing ROAS (Return on Ad Spend) of 8-10x on these specific segments because you aren’t wasting money on “accidental clicks.” 

3. The “Global” Persona (Cross-Border Targeting) 

• The Update: As of November 4, 2025, Amazon launched “In-Market (Multi-Country) Audiences.” 

• The Strategy: If you have a winning persona in the US (e.g., “Tech Early Adopters”), you can now port that exact audience definition to Germany, the UK, and Canada with one click. 

• The Unlock: You don’t need to do keyword research in German. You simply tell Amazon, “Find me the Tech Early Adopters in Berlin,” and the algorithm matches the behavioral signals. Behavior-based targeting removes the need for language-specific keyword testing. This is the fastest way to scale globally in Q1 2026. 

Clear persona labels help teams align creative, targeting, and budget decisions. 

The “Video-First” Sponsored Product Revolution

If you haven’t audited your creative assets since October 2025, your listings are likely invisible. 

The launch of Sponsored Products Video (SPV) at unBoxed 2025 was the final nail in the coffin for static imagery. Listings without short, motion-focused video assets are already seeing reduced visibility in competitive search results. 

What Changed? 

Previously, “Video Ads” were banner ads (Sponsored Brands). Now, Sponsored Products Video integrates directly into the main search results. 

• They look like a normal listing. 

• But when the user scrolls past, the main image auto-plays a video. 

• You can upload 1 to 5 videos per ASIN. 

The Data: 23% CTR Uplift 

Early beta tests from December 2025 showed a staggering 23% increase in Click-Through Rate (CTR) for SPV listings compared to static images. Higher engagement signals also improve ad eligibility across placements. 

However, there is a catch. You cannot just use your old “lifestyle” videos. 

The “Active Use” Requirement 

Amazon’s new creative guidelines favor “High-Motion Product Demonstrations.” 

• Bad Video: A slow pan of a coffee maker sitting on a counter. 

• Good Video (2026 Standard): A fast-paced clip of beans being poured, the button being pressed, and steam rising—all within the first 3 seconds. 

Shoppers in 2026 have “TikTok Brain.” Their attention span is less than 2 seconds. If your product isn’t moving in the search results, it’s dying. 

Action Item: You need to identify your top 10 selling ASINs. For each one, use the Amazon Video Generator (the AI tool updated in June 2025) or your creative team to produce a 6-second “Active Use” loop. Upload this as your primary SPV asset. This is not optional anymore; it is the baseline for visibility. 

Surviving “Dynamic Budget Allocation”

Let’s address the elephant in the room: The 10:00 AM Budget Crash. 

Starting in late 2025, Amazon shifted its budget pacing algorithm from “Even Pacing” to “Predictive Conversion Pacing.” Many sellers first noticed this shift when campaigns exhausted daily budgets before midday with no manual changes applied. 

How it Works 

The AI predicts when your specific customer is most likely to buy. If you sell coffee makers, the AI knows that 80% of your conversions happen between 7:00 AM and 11:00 AM. 

• Old Algorithm: Spend $10/hour from 7 AM to 10 PM. 

• New Algorithm: Spend $100/hour from 8 AM to 9 AM because that’s when the conversion probability is highest. 

The Problem 

If your budget is too low, you will run out of money by 10:00 AM. This leaves you invisible for the rest of the day, missing out on the “Second Wave” of evening shoppers. 

The Fix: “Dayparting via Rules” 

You cannot fight the algorithm, but you can guide it. 

1. Do NOT use “Average Daily Budget” for your main campaigns. 

2. Use “Intraday Budget Rules.” Set a rule to increase your budget by 50% specifically during the hours of 6:00 PM – 10:00 PM. This forces the algorithm to “save” some ammunition for the evening rush. 

3. Monitor “Lost Impression Share (Budget).” If this metric is above 10% in the morning, you are losing sales to competitors with deeper pockets. 

Rules help rebalance spend without fighting Amazon’s automated systems directly. 

The “Hybrid” Strategy for Q1 2026

So, how do you put this all together? You cannot abandon keywords entirely; they still capture high-intent search traffic. But you must layer the new “Persona” strategies on top. A blended structure allows you to protect existing demand while creating new demand through behavioral signals. 

Here is the recommended “Hybrid Structure” for a healthy US Amazon account in 2026: 

Layer 1: The Core (Keyword Based) – 40% of Budget 

• Campaign Type: Sponsored Products (Exact Match). 

• Targeting: Your “Super-Relevant” keywords only. No broad match fluff. 

• Goal: Protect your brand and rank for your top 10 search terms. 

Layer 2: The Persona (Signal Based) – 40% of Budget 

• Campaign Type: Sponsored Display & DSP (via AMC Audiences). 

• Targeting: 

• “Competitor Cart Abandoners” 

• “Category Browsers (Last 7 Days)” 

• “In-Market: [Your Category] Enthusiasts” 

• Goal: Acquisition. Feed the funnel with people who haven’t searched for you yet. 

Layer 3: The Video (Engagement Based) – 20% of Budget 

• Campaign Type: Sponsored Products Video (SPV). 

• Targeting: Broad Match Modifiers + Category Targeting. 

• Goal: Disruption. Using motion to steal clicks from competitors in the search results. 

Your 7-Day Action Plan

Information without action is just entertainment. Here is exactly what you need to do over the next week to “2026-Proof” your Amazon business. 

• Day 1: The Budget Audit. Check your “Budget Pacing” reports for the last 14 days. Are you capping out before noon? If yes, implement “Intraday Budget Rules” immediately to force evening visibility. 

• Day 2: The Rufus Audit. Go to the Amazon mobile app. Ask Rufus: “What is the best [Your Product Category] for [Specific Use Case]?” Does your product appear? If not, read the answer Rufus gives. What features is it highlighting? Update your backend search terms and bullet points to explicitly mention those features. 

• Day 3: Video Production. Select your top 3 ASINs. Create a 6-10 second “Active Use” video for each. It doesn’t need to be Hollywood quality; it needs to show the product working. 

• Day 4: AMC Setup. Log in to the Amazon Ads Console. Navigate to “Audiences.” If you haven’t enabled the “Ads Data Manager”, do it now. Connect your DTC (Direct-to-Consumer) data if you have it. 

• Day 5: Persona Construction. Build your first “Signal-Based” audience. Start simple: “Viewed my Detail Page > 2 times in 30 days but did not purchase.” Launch a Sponsored Display campaign targeting this specific group. 

• Day 6: Global Check. Are you selling in Canada or the UK? Use the “Cross-Country In-Market Audiences” feature to copy your best US audience settings to those marketplaces. 

• Day 7: Review. Look at your CTR on the new Video campaigns. If it’s above 0.5%, you’re winning. If it’s below 0.2%, your video isn’t engaging enough—cut the intro and get to the action faster. 

Conclusion: Adapt or Die

I don’t say this lightly: The gap between the “Haves” and the “Have-Nots” on Amazon is widening faster than ever. 

The “Haves” are the sellers who understand that Amazon is now an AI-driven Signal engine. They are feeding the beast with video, structuring around personas, and using AMC to snipe customers that their competitors don’t even know exist. 

The “Have-Nots” are still downloading Search Term Reports, adding negative keywords, and wondering why their ACOS (Advertising Cost of Sales) keeps creeping up every month. 

The tools are there. The “No-Code” AMC builder has democratized data that used to cost $50k/month to access. The Video Generator has democratized creative production. You have no excuses left. 

Sellers who adapt early gain efficiency, while those who delay face rising costs with declining control. 

The algorithm has evolved. Have you?

FAQ: Amazon Advertising in 2026